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Future Emerging Technology Trends


Folgende Zitate stammen aus dem Technology Trends Survey: Future Emerging Technology Trend. 2015 und sind im Zusammenhang mit mit dem Projekt “Neuen Technologien/Converting Technologies” von Relevanz.

This study looks across partitions in a multidisciplinary perspective that gives a broad view of technology allowing the detection of weak signals that are too often missed or scoffed at within single domains. S. 2.

Siehe dazu auch Das Unerwartete managen.

Innovative Technology applications, such as using an airplane as a weapon on 9/11, or increasing the lethality of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in Iraq. Such innovations do not necessarily require technical expertise, but rather the creativity to use available resources in a new way. S. 3.

“Wir müssen immer erfolgreich sein, die anderen nur einmal.” Auch beim Hacking geht es um die Nutzung von nicht intendierten Möglichkeiten von Technik.

The emerging future environment will be increasingly complex where the interconnected components of systems have greater impacts than the individual pieces. Relations and interconnections within these complex environments will no longer be linear as the components are strongly coupled by globalisation and networks. This will bring about fundamental disproportionality across these systems where small changes can sometimes create extreme effects. Emergent behaviour will come about as novel properties arise from the interactions of simple components. Much of this growing complexity is driven by the increasing power of technology and its diffusion through societies across the globe. The rate of technological progress is accelerating at an exponential rate. Emerging technology trends and new scientific discoveries will change the way future generations will spend their life time. S. 4.

Siehe Vernetzung & Komplexität.

Issac Asimov wrote that “the saddest aspect of society right now is that science gathers knowledge faster than society gathers wisdom.” Anything that can be done will be done somewhere by someone regardless of legal or moral conventions. Rapid technology advances have produced technology well ahead of the policy and legal regimes that are required to regulate its use – leaving unregulated spaces within which adaptive adversaries have on opportunity to operate. The development of policy structures and legal regimes to regulate the use of emerging technologies requires international and interagency cooperation, a time consuming process that allows the technology to exist within regulatory vacuums for long periods. S. 5.

Whereas the totality of all data created from the beginning of time until 2003 was about 5 billion gigabytes, the same amount of information was created in 10 minutes in 2013. S. 6.

Wireless mesh networks, wherein data jumps from device to device forming an ad hoc network, will provide inexpensive and robust means of passing data. These networks will be able to expand automatically and efficiently as the number of devices on the network increases without expensive infrastructure. As they are not controlled from a central point, these networks will be extremely resilient to attack. S. 15.

Around 50% of global computing power is already done via mobile devices. S. 16.

New types of risks have emerged from growing complexity within the environment: inherited risk, new sources of risk (e.g. cyber-security risks), risk from combinatorial effects, risk from cascading consequences, and risks from emergent threats. S. 18

Siehe unter systemische Risiken.

In many instances, adversaries need only create chaos rather than cause real damage to achieve their objectives.This is made even more difficult when the Alliance relies heavily on networked systems and does not hold the initiative, and must defend against all attacks while opponents may only need to be successful once.Defence against these types of threats will be expensive while attacks with cyber weapons will be cheap. S. 21.

Caution must be exercised though as whereas, in nature, small localized mistakes/mutations occur regularly, when humans intervene in biology there could be the potential for massive mistakes. S. 24.

For example, algae are now being developed that will output fuel oil. This offers considerable opportunities, as well as concerns around potential misuse. S. 24.

Drug resistant infections kill 23.000 people in the United States every year. S. 25.

Biomimicry and bio-inspiration are methodologies in which biological systems, processes and elements are studied to draw analogues to be applied to human design and industrial challenges. Evolutionary pressures typically force natural systems to become highly optimized and efficient through the 4 billion years of product improvement that has occurred over the life of the planet. S. 27.

In fact, global agricultural output already produces twice as much food as is required by the global population, butdisruptions in supply chains, lack of efficient infrastructure and corruption lead to inefficient distribution. Almost one quarter of production is lost due to mechanical damage, spoilage and consumer waste in the foot supply chain. S. 28.

A possible alternative will be lab-grown meat that requires only small amounts of resources. An EU study states that large scale, lab grown meat would use 99.7% less land, 94% less water and produce 98,8% less greenhouse gas. S. 29.

Industrial countries are increasingly using autonomous systems to overcome rapidly rising personnel costs – including pay, pensions and other benefits – and decreasing financial and personal resources, aging populations and other demographic changes, decreasing recruitment base and possible changing views of military service. S. 30.

Was die derzeitige Argumentation, warum Europa Zuwanderung/Flüchtlinge für den zukünftigen Arbeitsmarkt und zur Erhaltung des Sozialsystems benötigt, doch konterkariert.

There are many trends where technology is advancing faster than the development of associated policy and legal considerations. The software programs to support these types of systems will be extremely complex and likely written by teams of programmers where the overall complexity could lead to software errors and possible to unforeseen emergent behaviours. This is part of what is termed a “first generation problem” – where one will not know what type of mistakes autonomous systems could commit until they have already committed them. It would not be difficult to imagine many paradoxical situations where robots would come up against contradictory information where even humans would have difficulty making an appropriate decision. S. 34.

Versuch und Irrtum hat bisher ganz gut funktioniert. In hoch vernetzten Systemen mit vielen wechselseitigen Abhängigkeiten kann das jedoch fatal sein. Siehe hierzu auch besonders das Szenario “Blackout”.

The factory of the past was based on building standardised products in high numbers. The factory of the future will focus on micro-manufacturing and mass customisation. S. 37.

As economies of scale will no longer be a driving factor, manufacturing can be done anywhere. S. 37.

More localised, distributed power production and decentralisation of energy grids supported by this digitalised intelligence and renewable energy will drive power production to the areas that demand it rather than having to transport it over great distances. Nanotechnology though will bring about materials that will support the movement of electricity with much less loss during transmission. S. 39.

Studies show that investment in future energy efficient technology likely will have smaller capital demands than the earlier technologies that they would replace. S. 39.#

An ancillary benefit of moving to a smarter grid will be to increase its strength and protection against attack. Smart grids will have greater resistance to the type of cascading failure that has become more common of late where a small incident on some portion of the grid can bring about a major failure in the overall grid. S. 40.

More efficient means of generating electricity will allow movement to more localised generation of power. This will increase resilience within the network as individual islands would not be caught up within cascading failures, would be harder to target and would eliminate the need to transport the energy over long distances. These grids would also be more accepting of alternative sources of power that have cyclical production capacity such as wind and solar. These types of systems will become more common in developing countries where centralised generation of power and large grids to not already exist. S. 40.

In diesem Fall wird Smart Grid als Energiezellenansatz und nicht die zentrale IT-Vernetzung der Stromversorgung verstanden.

Nanotechnology has supported significant progress in the development of improved batteries. S. 43.

High Power Microwave weapons (HPM) are a new threat on the future battlefield. These weapons could be developed by states, non-states or individuals as they do not require large industrial bases to produce. They are designed to overwhelm a target’s capability to reject, disperse or withstand the energy, and will produce significant and often lethal effects on their targets. The most serious effects will be on sensors working in the radio frequency (RF) region, but infrared and electro-optical sensors also could be impacted. The range of these weapons could be extended through antenna design or parallelizing several emitters. HPW do not require advance knowledge of the targets’ electronics and can produce damage even when the target system is turned off. Currently, the radius of these types of weapons is not as great as nuclear Electro-magnetic Pulse ((N)EMP) effects. Open literature source indicate that effective radii of “hundreds of meters or more” are possible. Recently, missile systems have been demonstrated that can fly over a number of targets and fire microwave bursts that will disable electronic systems. EMP and HPM weapons offer a significant capability against electronic equipment. The EMP effect is characterized by the production of a very short (hundreds of nanoseconds) but intense electromagnetic pulse. This pulse of energy produces a powerful electromagnetic field sufficiently strong to produce short lived transient voltages of thousands of volts on exposed electrical conductors, such as wires or conductive tracks on printed circuit boards. S. 50.

Auch aus diesem Grund macht ein dezentralisiertes Energiezellensystem Sinn!

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